Quick answer…doubt it! As Op-Ed pieces and lawmakers debate the virtues of a government bailout of the American auto industry, General Motors is pointing to its plug-in hybrid vehicle, the Volt, as a sign that the car maker is on the right course. Not due to hit showrooms until 2010, the Volt is being touted by GM as the car that will change the industry (and save the ailing company’s hide).
But, it’s been a long time since Detroit’s innovation inspired the world. At the height of the Big Three’s prestige and influence, the decade following WWII, US automakers enjoyed a 95% market share. Now, as John Tamny writes in Forbes, General Motors market value is less than that of Bed, Bath and Beyond, with less than 25% market share of overall car sales in the US. As others have noted, if GM fails, it will do so under the weight of its pension and healthcare commitments, yes, but also because of its misplaced emphasis on that most American of ideals, ‘bigger means better.’
As Micheline Maynard writes in the NY Times, the Volt represents a “a big long-term bet. New vehicles typically cost $1 billion to develop, and the Volt requires new technology that probably inflated that price tag even more.” With an expected price tag of $40,000, the Volt will hardly be a middle class mainstay, especially as the middle class is shrinking. And the projected volume of sales in underwhelming. GM expects to make 10,000 Volts in 2010, less than the number of Prius hybrids that Toyota sells in a month.
The Big Three (Ford, Chrysler and GM) were too slow to recognize fuel efficiency as an increasingly important factor for car buyers. Even with gas down below $2/gallon, fears of a prolonged financial meltdown combined with a growing green consciousness will ensure that fuel efficiency remains important to consumers. As they lobby Congress for a substantial bailout, US automakers are insisting they’ve seen the light, but perhaps too late.
The Volt probably won’t save GM, but perhaps GM’s failure might save American innovation, serving as a reminder that, in the new Green Economy, you either get it…or you don’t.

